My Fair Palin- A Musical Fantasia- Part Two

ACT 2

SCENE 1

Another McCain rally.
MCCAIN stands alone DS. He has visibly aged since the last time he appeared, and he looks increasingly desperate.

JUST YOU WAIT, JOE THE PLUMBER
(To the tune of “Just You Wait”)

MCCAIN: (singing)
Just you wait, Joe the Plumber, just you wait!
You’ll be sorry if Barack is head of state!
You'll be broke, because he’ll tax you!
Do you think that’s fair? I axe you!
Just you wait, Joe the Plumber, just you wait!
Just you wait, Joe the Plumber, when you’re sick!
Barack says you’ll have insurance- it’s a trick!
‘Cause a doctor won’t improve things ‘til the government approves things!
Oh ho ho, Joe the Plumber, just you wait!

Ooooooh Joe the Plumber!
Just you wait until he taxes your small biz!
Ooooooh Joe the Plumber!
Don’t you know that that’s what socialism is?
We just want things to be more fair but Obama wants class warfare!
Oh ho ho, Joe the Plumber!
Oh ho ho, Joe the Plumber!
Just! You! Wait!
(Lights out.)

SCENE 2

Sarah Palin press conference.
SCHMIDT and MCCAIN stand USL, as they look upon PALIN standing DSR at a podium. PALIN continues to wear the trapped expression she wore in SCENE 5. She is faced by a handful of weary REPORTERS DSC.

SCHMIDT: I swear, we’re still okay, Senator! You’re the comeback king! We’re gonna win this thing, I promise! We’re not dead yet!

SHE COULDN'T ANSWER RIGHT
(To the tune of “I Could Have Danced All Night”)

MCCAIN:
Dead! Dead! How could we not be dead?
There's just no way we'll ever make up ground!
Win? Win? We’re never gonna win!
Not unless Bin Laden bombs a town!

She couldn't answer right
She couldn't answer right
Until she read her notes.
She's making people scared
‘Cause she's so unprepared
And now we're losing votes!

I do not know how she can go and give them
Only non-sequiters all night.

I only know if she
Get asked about Muthee
She couldn’t ans- ans- answer right!
(music ends)

MCCAIN: Why are we doing this?!

SCHMIDT: We had to eventually let her talk to the press- it looks bad when we sequester her.

MCCAIN: And this doesn’t make us look bad? She hasn’t answered a question
coherently yet! When she was asked what magazines she read she looked like she was about to have a breakdown!

SCHMIDT: Don’t worry- it’s almost over. She just has to hold out a little longer.

MCCAIN’S CAMPAIGN
(To the tune of “The Rain In Spain”)

REPORTERS: (singing)
Poor campaign reporters!
Poor campaign reporters!
Night and day
We ask away!
Oh, poor campaign reporters!
All day long, asking her; while she rambles glassy-eyed!
All day long, asking her; how she’s qualified!

REPORTER: (spoken)
Governor Palin, many people feel that this campaign is showing signs of desperation. One day Senator McCain claims the fundamentals of the economy are strong. The next day McCain claims he’s been warning about economic disaster for years. One day Obama has been learning hatred at a radical Christian church, the next day he’s a Muslim terrorist. One day Colin Powell is a hero of the Republican Party, the next day he’s a racist who is only endorsing Obama because they’re both black. There seems to be a failure to stay “on message.” Right now, how would you characterize this campaign?

(PALIN at first looks stunned, then slowly breaks into a maniacal grin. As the song progresses she slips into near-catatonia. It is clear that she is having a nervous breakdown.)

PALIN: McCain’s campaign is, plainly, just inane.

REPORTER: Again?

PALIN: McCain’s campaign is, plainly, just inane.

MCCAIN: Oh, God, she’s lost it! I think she’s lost it!

PALIN: (sings)
McCain’s campaign is, plainly, just inane.

SCHMIDT: (spoken)
Oh shit, we’ve lost it! We’ve clearly lost it!

REPORTER:
Now once again, how is McCain?

PALIN:
He’s insane! He’s insane!

REPORTER:
And what of his campaign?

PALIN:
Inane! Inane!

PALIN AND REPORTERS:
McCain’s campaign is, plainly, just inane.
McCain’s campaign is, plainly, just inane!

REPORTER:
In PA, Michigan, and VA…?

PALIN:
Upsets can hardly happen.
(spoken)
How strange of them to let me run!

REPORTER:
Now once again, what about McCain?

PALIN:
He’s insane! He’s insane!

REPORTER:
And what’s this damn campaign?

PALIN:
Inane! Inane!

PALIN AND REPORTERS:
McCain’s campaign is, plainly, just inane.
McCain’s campaign is, plainly, just inane!

(MCCAIN and SCHMIDT quickly cross DSR, where they wrestle PALIN offstage.)

SCENE 3

McCain Campaign Headquarters. Election Day.
MCCAIN paces back and forth DSL. SCHMIDT and PALIN stand DSR.

WITHOUT YOU

MCCAIN: (spoken)
What a fool I was! What an imbecilic fool!
To think you two would help me win!
(sings)
What a fool I was, what a post-traumatic fool,
There are things that you just cannot spin!
Now, I must say to you, “my friends,”
Sarah Palin is not what she pretends!

(MCCAIN crosses to PALIN)
I might still have a chance without you!
My plans I could advance without you!
If I’d chosen Romney
Or hell, even Rudy
I could run the country without you!

I would look fit to lead without you!
Wouldn’t have to concede without you!
I could make my ascent, my win I would cement, yes I’d be president without you!
Yes it’s true! Without you!

PALIN:
You, my friend, who vet so well,
You can go to H-E-double-hockey-sticks!

I still have a career without you!
They still think I’m sincere without you!
And in 2012 I will run by myself without you!

MCCAIN: (spoken)
You little c---!

PALIN:
Without your record I will look more clean!
Without your angry talk I’ll look less mean!
Without your baggy jowls I’ll look more fit!
If I don’t have your baggage, Johnny- I’m legit!
I will go it alone without you
I can stand on my own without you
So go back to AZ
In four years you will see
What a winner I’ll be
Without you!

(PALIN storms off SR angrily. SCHMIDT shakes his head and also exits SR. MCCAIN is left alone. Offstage, a REPORTER starts reading electoral vote tallies.)

REPORTER (VO): Florida’s results are in and we’re calling it for Obama. That is 27 more electoral votes….

I’VE GROWN ACCUSTOMED TO THIS RACE

(To the tune of “I’ve Grown Accustomed To Her Face”)

MCCAIN:
Damn! Damn! Damn! Damn!
I've grown accustomed to this race.
Is this all really how it ends?
I've grown accustomed to my Less-
Than-Straight-Talking Express.
The preyed-on fears,
The lies. The smears.
They’re second nature to me now;
Like calling everyone “my friends.”
I was perceived as independent during my 2000 campaign;
Surely I could always act like that year’s John McCain.
But I’m accustomed to the slobs;
The angry, racist mobs.
Accustomed to this race.

(Spoken)
Sarah Palin! What an infantile idea. What a clueless,
stupid, brainless thing to do! I regret it! I regret it!
It was doomed before we blew off Lieberman.

(Singing)
I can see her then, Governor of NowheresVille
With her wretched little redneck husband Todd.
With her endless, stupid, chants of “Drill, Baby, Drill”
And her certainty that she was pals with God.
She tried to play the tough reformer,
And showed she had no ethics, instead.
Responses couldn’t be lukewarmer,
To a woman without one brain in her head!
Ha!
After four years of a Barack Obama rule
When’s he’s finally mopped up George Dubya’s mess
She’ll be nothing more than a helium-voiced fool
In a twenty-thousand-dollar Neiman dress.
Oh, poor Sarah. How simply frightful!
How humiliating! How delightful!
How poignant it'll be when she starts running in ’12.
And she’s not even invited on “The View.”
All her grand ambitions, she’ll tearfully shelve—

(Spoken)

Will I invite her to a Georgetown cocktail party?
Give her my endorsement or the treatment she deserves?
Will I take her back or throw the baggage out?

(Sings)
I'm a “real” American;
The sort who never could, ever would,
Take a position and staunchly never budge.
Just a “real” American.
But, I shall never take her back,
If she came begging for advice!
Let her promise me a place
In her presidential race
I will slam the door and Vote Obama twice!

(Spoken)
Sarah Palin! Hah!

(Sings)
But I'm so used to hearing Fox
And their faux scandals and shocks.
My vile attacks.
Her Joe Sixpacks
Are second nature to me now;
Like robo-calls and Town Hall meets.
I'm very grateful that I went to
Nam and was a tortured vet.
Surely that’s a tale that
I can still exploit-

And yet,
I've grown accustomed to the thought
Of “President McCain.”
Accustomed to this race.

(MCCAIN shuffles L and pauses to shake his head. PALIN enters DSR, crosses to MCCAIN and takes his hand as music gets louder. They both slowly exit L.)

THE CURTAIN FALLS.

© 2008, Christopher Stansfield. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed to the public under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License, and may only be distributed according to the terms of said license. To view a copy of this license, please click here.

My Fair Palin- A Musical Fantasia- Part One

As I've followed the current presidential race and occasionally posted my thoughts here, the responses I've been receiving have been- well, negligible, to be honest. I'm confident only that two people are actually reading this blog- and one of them is my sister.

That said, there are clearly people who at least are aware of the fact I've been opining on the election, (even if they're not reading what I have to write), because more than one has expressed surprise that I'd have the nerve. After all, who the heck do I think I am? I'm just a guy who hangs out at piano bars and goes to the theater (when he can afford it).

And then it hit me- I am eminently qualified to write about this years campaigns precisely BECAUSE of my love of musical theater. The ups and downs of this election season have been nothing if not theatrical. So, I got to thinking- what exactly would the McCain Campaign look like if it were staged with music? What would the "arc" be? With apologies to Lerner, and Lowe, this is what I came up with. (I was once told that every household has at least one copy of the cast album of the musical I'm about to lovingly rip-off, so if you can't follow along without it go put it on the record player. What, people don't have those anymore? I'm screwed.)

MY FAIR PALIN: A MUSICAL FANTASIA
ACT 1, SCENE 1:

McCain Campaign Headquarters.

AT RISE: We see JOHN MCCAIN and STEVE SCHMIDT (McCain’s top advisor) sitting on a sofa watching BARACK OBAMA’S latest speech on CNN.

SCHMIDT: I’m telling you boss, we have this in the bag!

MCCAIN: Really? He seems so eloquent!

SCHMIDT: That’s exactly it! America doesn’t like eloquent! Why do you think Dubya was elected twice?

WHY CAN’T THE DEMS

(to the tune of “Why Can’t the English?”)

SCHMIDT: (Sung)
Look at him, a prisoner of his party!
Insisting that it’s good to be a smarty!
By rights he should be taken out and decked,
For insisting on showing off his intellect!

OBAMA VO: (Spoken)

“Nuance.”

SCHMIDT: (Spoken)
“Nuance!
Heavens, what a word! (He sings)
This is why those Democratic asses,
Never can appeal to all the masses!

MCCAIN (Spoken):
Come on, I don’t think that’s the only reason!

SCHMIDT (Spoken):
Isn’t it? (He sings)

Hear him talk about PA,
It will take your breath away!
Saying that it clings to guns and God.
“Obama,” says the NRA,

“Wants to take your guns away!”
That’s how we’ll convince them he’s a fraud!

Hear that Hillary- or worse
Hear a Kennedy converse!
It distances them all right off the bat!
All of them keep their words straight

And make sure they enunciate!

I ask you, John, who wants to vote for that?

It's “nuance” and “smarts” that keep them from their prize

Not our dirty tricks and filthy lies!

Why can’t the Dems teach all their members how to speak?
They have to know their manner is far too slick and sleek!
If you sound like Al Gore does instead of the way Bush sounds
The rural voters throw you to the hounds!

MCCAIN: (spoken)
Seriously?

SCHMIDT:

A Democrat’s way of speaking almost always is defeatist!
The moment he talks he gives us all the chance to shout “elitist!”

Use proper English and they’ll think something’s amiss!

Oh, why can't the Dem’crats learn to

MISpronounce words like “nuke-you-ler” so they hurt a person’s ears?

If you say “ain’t” you’ll hear the voters' cheers!

Words that end “I-N-G?” Make certain the “g” sound disappears!

George Dubya hasn’t used one in years!

Why can’t the Dems teach all their members how to speak?
Looking educated simply makes them all look weak!

If you use proper English you're regarded as a freak!

Oh why can’t the Dem’crats?

Why can’t the Dem’crats

Learn To Speak?

SCENE 1A:

MCCAIN: You have a point. We’re really going to have to choose a running-mate who doesn’t seem too slick, too elitist. So that rules out Romney. How about Lieberman?

SCHMIDT: Lieberman’s a Jew! They’re ALL elitist!

MCCAIN: Oh, right. But who?

SCHMIDT: I’m glad you asked. Let me introduce you to Governor Sarah Palin!

(SARAH PALIN, an attractive woman with bangs and glasses pops up from behind the sofa, momentarily startling MCCAIN.)

PALIN: Ta-dahh!

WOULDN’T I BE MAVERICKY?

(To the tune of “Wouldn’t It Be Loverly)

PALIN: (singing)

I’m feeling bored today I think I’ll shoot a caribou!

SCHMIDT: (humming)

Mmmmmm.

PALIN:
If I’m allowed I think I’ll also ban a book or two.

SCHMIDT:

Mmmmmmm.

PALIN:

When I make policy I just ask what would Jesus do!

SCHMIDT:

Mmmm, Mmmm- Wouldn't she be mavericky?

PALIN:
All I want is a VP spot,
I’m exactly what Biden’s not!

And don’t you think I’m hot?

Oh wouldn't I be mavericky?

Lots of oil in Alaska state

Bible-thumpers will think I’m great!

Make me your running mate!

Oh wouldn’t I be mavericky?

Oh, so mavericky I’ll win over women who liked Hill.
I will really shake things up
When I try to ban the Pill!

I fought off that Bridge to Nowhere

Sure I did! Really- no, I swear!

But you don’t even care

‘Cause wouldn’t I be mavericky?

MCCAIN:

Mavericky?

SCHMIDT:

Mavericky!

PALIN:

Mavericky!

ALL:
Mavericky.

SCENE 2

MCCAIN and SCHMIDT sit on the sofa DSL while PALIN stands USR The two men are prepping PALIN as she pretends to field reporters’ questions.

SCHMIDT (speaking into his pen as if it were a microphone): But Sarah, what do you say to the people who claim your husband was a member of a revolutionary political party that supports the idea of Alaska seceding from the United States? Do you associate with terrorists?

PALIN: Oh, well I don’t know ‘bout that sorta thing, but I’ll tell you who associates with terrorists! Barack Obama, that’s who! Why, he’s friends with someone who by his own admittance wanted to bring down the country! You betcha!

SCHMIDT: Brilliant answer!

MCCAIN: I don’t know- I feel like we should have asked Sarah some of these questions BEFORE we announced her as my running mate! I mean, how’s she going to deal with all these skeletons in her closet?

SCHMIDT: Easy, John- she’s hot! Nobody’s gonna attack a hot woman! All she needs is a little bit of pluck! Watch this! Sarah, some people are saying that you lied when you said you were against the Bridge To Nowhere- how do you respond?

WITH A LITTLE BIT OF PLUCK

(To the tune of "With A Little Bit of Luck")

PALIN: (singing)

The Congress gave me four hundred-some million

To build a bridge that I wanted to build
The Congress gave me four hundred-some million,

But

With a little bit of pluck, with a little bit of pluck

I’ll claim I’m the one who got it killed!

With a little bit...with a little bit...
With a little bit of pluck I got it killed!

SCHMIDT: (spoken)

What about the charges against your office back home in Alaska?

PALIN:

Alaska brought an ethics charge against me
On my abuse of power they’re fixated

Alaska brought an ethics charge against me

But
With a little bit of pluck, with a little bit of pluck,
I’ll pretend that I was vindicated!

With a little bit...with a little bit...
With a little bit of pluck it was negated!

Oh, I could tell the honest story
But with a little bit of pluck the charge I’ll duck!

I asked a librarian how I ban books

If I don’t like the messages they share.

I asked a librarian how to ban books-

But
With a little bit of pluck, With a little bit of pluck,
(winking)

I’ll just point out that they’re all still there!

With a little bit...with a little bit...
With a little bit of pluck I’ll say I’m fair!
With a little bit...with a little bit...
With a little bit of lies and pluck!

MCCAIN: (spoken)

But what about your daughter’s…condition?

PALIN:

I am opposed to real sex education

But Bristol’s pregnancy I must report

I am opposed to real sex education

But
With a little bit of pluck, With a little bit of pluck,
I’ll just say

I’m proud she won’t abort!

With a little bit...with a little bit...
With a little bit of luck, she won’t abort!

Sure I may be a big hypocrite
But with a little bit of pluck I’ll dodge the muck!

Oh sure it’s true, my husband wants to secede

And he belongs to radical fringe groups.
Oh ya, it’s true, my husband wants to secede

But
With a little bit of pluck, With a little bit of pluck,
I’ll just wink and make the press my dupes!

(winks)

With a little bit...with a little bit...
With a little bit of pluck the press won’t swoop!

With a little bit...with a little bit...
With a little bit of lies and pluck!

MCCAIN AND SALTER:
She doesn’t have a single explanation
For all the scandals that she’s in knee-deep!
And what she lacks is one qualification!

But
With a little bit of pluck, With a little bit of pluck,
Dumb Americans will make her Veep!

With a little bit...with a little bit...
With a little bit of pluck, they’ll make her Veep!
With a little bit...with a little bit...
With a little bit of lies and pluck!

SCENE 3

A McCain/Palin Rally.

PALIN stands DS as she addresses an unseen crowd.

PALIN:

I’m just so glad to see you all here in what I like to call the ‘real America.” You all have real American values! Not like those people in fake America where they’re all latte-sippin’ elitists! They all think they’re better than you because they had a pair of towers! After all,

I’M A REAL AMERICAN

(To the tune of “I’m An Ordinary Man.”)

PALIN: (sings)

You’re all real Americans,
Who desire nothing more than for our country to stand tall,
And to protect it from the terrorists who wanna see it fall!

You’re real Americans, who like to sit in pews!

Who want us all to be

Completely free

(Unless, of course, you don’t share all our views.)

You’re all real Americans!

But

Let Obama win this race-

And don’cha know, there will be sobs!
He is not like you or I

And our freedoms all will die

When he gives that guy Bill Ayers and his terr'ist slayers jobs!

Let Obama win this race-

And all our liberty he’ll steal!
Can’t you tell the way he talks

And that cocky way he walks

Is elitist! The effete-ist! So we cannot let him beat us- HE’S NOT REAL!

You want to go and do some hunting?
Well, he’ll just take your guns away!
And you can forget goin’ to church-

When he makes it a crime to pray!

Don’t let Obama win this race!

‘Cause that would be a real disgrace!

I can guarantee, you betcha

That the terrorists will getcha

And I know it’s what your thinkin’-

That’s the reason that I’m winkin’!

We can never let Obama win this race!

(PALIN basks in the applause of her supporters and barely flinches when, OS, someone shouts, “Kill him!”)

SCENE 4

McCain/Palin Campaign Headquarters.

MCCAIN stands SL with SCHMIDT. Despite PALIN’S apparent triumph in the previous scene he looks agitated. PALIN sits on the sofa, looking lost and confused.

MCCAIN: I know she’s playing well to the base, but as soon as she goes off message she’s a disaster! How can we let her make this trip to New York?

SCHMIDT: Don’t worry- she’s gonna pose for some pictures and look Vice Presidential. That’s it! We’ve lined up Kissinger and a real top-drawer list of diplomats. All anyone is going to see is poise! I promise!

MCCAIN: You’d better make sure of it! So far she isn’t working out the way you promised!

DON’T LET HER SPEAK TO THE PRESS

(To the tune of "Get Me To The Church On Time")

MCCAIN: (sings)

She’s meeting Henry in the morning!

What they’ll discuss I cannot guess!

Our Iraq missions?

Talk preconditions?

Just don’t let her speak to the press!

She’ll be in New York in the morning!

Make sure she’s wearing a tight dress!

Don’t let her take questions!
That’s my one suggestion!

Please, don’t let her speak to the press!

If they have cameras

Go let ‘em shoot

But if they take notes,

Give ‘em all the boot!

She’s meeting Karzai in the morning!

And this is one thing I must stress!

She’s good at winking!

But not great at thinking!

Don’t you let her speak

Please just don’t let her speak

For God’s sake, don’t let her speak to the press!

SCENE 5

The Vice Presidential debate.

JOE BIDEN, a man with a comb-over and an easy-going smile, stands USL with an unnamed advisor. BIDEN looks confident as his adviser frets. SARAH PALIN stands USR with JOE SCHMIDT. DSL and DSR are two podiums.

ADVISOR: Just remember, Joe- watch the verbal diarrhea! We don’t want any gaffes and we don’t want you to look boring! And be respectful!

BIDEN: Don’t sweat it! For once I’m not the one who has to worry! (He sings)

AT THE V.P. DEBATE

(To the tune of "On The Street Where You Live")

BIDEN: (singing)
I have often talked like a blowhard bore;
But I’ve never met somebody whose skills were so poor!
All at once am I several stories high

Knowing Palin’s the one I‘ll debate!

Did she really hunt from a flying plane?
Can she see Vladimir Putin through her windowpane?

Did she know McCain and Bush share a brain?
I’m so glad Palin’s who I’ll debate!

And oh! I’ll take her to task, too
‘Cause I know she won’t have a plan!
(Stage whispering to SR)

Just hope, they don't ever ask you
Who commands our forces in Afghanistan!

(Singing)

People mock my hair- they don't bother me.
For I’m sure that I will kick her ass on live TV!
Let the time go by, I won't care if I
Make her look bad at the Veep debate!

(The two candidates cross DS, shake hands, and then walk to their podia, while their aides remain USL and USR in the wings. A strobe light turns on and shows BIDEN’S face grow more and more confident as PALIN begins to look like a caribou caught in headlights. After a minute of pantomime, the two shake hands again and walk off USL and USR respectively. SCHMIDT is left standing, alone, USR. Tight spotlight on SCHMIDT as he slowly puts his head in his hands.)

INTERMISSION

© 2008, Christopher Stansfield. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed to the public under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License, and may only be distributed according to the terms of said license. To view a copy of this license, please click here.

What Colin Powell's Endorsement "Means"

As has been predicted for several days, the former Secretary of State, Ret. Gen. Colin Powell, announced on today's Meet the Press that he will be voting for Sen. Barack Obama in this year's presidential election. Powell, who has been repeatedly and lavishly praised by Obama's opponent, Sen. John McCain, over the last eight years, claimed to be "disappointed" with both McCain's campaign tactics and his choice of running-mate (Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin). He cited Obama as a "transformational" candidate.

So, what, exactly, does this mean for the candidates' campaigns? Pundits on the left(ish) side of the political spectrum are predictably enthusiastic about this turn of events- Powell has always been perceived by many as a statesman-like figure whose military and foreign policy background are unassailable. More importantly, he is a Republican who served Pres. G.W. Bush, and thus his endorsement appears to be another piece of evidence supporting the idea that the Republican "brand" is so damaged that its own followers are "seeing the light." Expressions like "the final nail in McCain's coffin" have been used by some with glee. There's no question that this is not a good thing for McCain.

This particular image of Powell, however, is not necessarily an accurate one- people with short memories on the Left might want to remind themselves of Powell's complicity, even cowardice, in promoting the Bush administration's Iraq War. If Powell's own dishonesty in endorsing that war isn't directly responsible for the thousands of American and Iraqi lives (and billions of taxpayer dollars) that have been unnecessarily lost in the last several years, then it is certainly a major factor. It is valid to ask why Obama supporters should even be PROUD of this endorsement- and to wonder why Powell is considered "credible" in a way that other Bush administration figures are not. Most people learn at a very early age that it helps to be popular with the big men on campus, but that popularity doesn't always speak well of us or our goals. Would we be this excited if the endorsement had come from Donald Rumsfeld? How would that endorsement be any different, really?

The fact is, Powell's endorsement doesn't actually "mean" much- at least not to Obama supporters. It is important to keep in mind that Obama already had a clear lead in both polls and in the Electoral College tally that various news and punditry organizations maintain. If one looked at the CNN map last night, things already seemed pretty dire for the McCain camp.

If we take as a given the "solid" Democratic and Republican states in the current map, and also assume that the current analysis of which states are "leaning" one way or another is accurate (we should do neither, of course- the election is not won or lost, yet, and complacency can ONLY be a bad thing), then the current conventional wisdom is that there are only six states that can not already be "called" for one candidate or another. In order to capture the 270 electoral votes he would need to win or tie, McCain would need to win ALL SIX of those states, AND, in the next two weeks, change the minds of at least one and possibly two of the states that are currently considered "blue" or "blue-leaning." Obama needs (according to CNN) only to "hang in" for the next two weeks to capture the presidency. Considering the financial and logistical resources it will take to vigorously campaign in that many states- resources the McCain campaign does not have- McCain's chances look slim. This is a fact that McCain himself has already acknowledged, saying that "Obama is already measuring the drapes" for the White House. As usual, McCain's attempt to be snide (he would say "funny") backfires- as with most of McCain's quips, his sarcasm instead reveals McCain's own inner mind- even HE doesn't really think he can win at this point.

So really, a Powell endorsement of Obama only "hurts" the McCain campaign in the same way that a pin-up girl painted on the Enola Gay would have "hurt" Hiroshima- it's not the injury- it's the insult.

However, Powell's endorsement may still have MEANING, even if it doesn't actually affect things much- and that meaning will come from the inevitable reaction of those on the Right whose egos are assuredly bruised by this endorsement. It will become very interesting to parse the words of prominent McCain officials and supporters in the next few days, because they will undoubtedly reveal a great deal about the Republican mind. I predict three separate reactions. The first two are easy to guess, if we look at what happened to Scott McLellan, Richard Clarke, and Anthony Zinni, among other former Bush administration staffers who have since criticized their former employers. The somewhat more politic among Republican die-hards will sadly shrug and shake their heads (or provide a written equivalent) and claim that Powell is "out-of-touch," "misinformed," or "deluded." The more bellicose (severe blond women with prominent adam's apples and Fox News blowhards among them) will have no qualms about calling Powell a "traitor" or otherwise impugning his motives (perhaps suggesting that he's "auditioning for a spot in the next administration," as they did of Clarke.) They will do this despite eight years of statements praising Powell and treating him as a Republican hero, and they will do it without irony, because they are convinced that Americans can only remember back as far as last week.

The third, and most pernicious, response will be overtly stated by only a few, but "subtly" alluded to by many more. Those people will point out a fact about Powell that is obvious on the surface- he is a black man. Then, they will remind people that the presidential candidate he is supporting is a black man, too (or at least not white- concepts like mixed-race backgrounds tend to be a bit 'nuanced" for a lot of people). And they will go on to say that Powell's endorsement doesn't matter because, after all, that one commonality is the only reason he is endorsing Obama. Powell's previous political convictions will have little bearing on their statements of "fact." After all, to many, black people who support the Republican party, like Powell, Clarence Thomas, and Condoleezza Rice, tend to be regarded as independent thinkers only as long as they stay "in house" and parrot the party line. Once they cross that line they fall into the category of all those other black people who traditionally vote as Democrats- narrowly self-interested and racist.
If you think I'm being cynical (or "playing the race card") you can be excused and forgiven- but only if you haven't been paying attention to what's been going on around the country in the last several months. Obama's campaign has been an eye-opener in that it has shown just how far America has come with regards to civil rights- in the grand scheme of things, forty years from Jim Crow to a possible black president is astounding, and something the country should be proud of. It has also shown how much farther many people still have to go. One needn't even argue that references to Obama as being "different from us," and as "having different values" are subtly racist when we have plenty of examples of good, old-fashioned, OVERT racism to choose from in the last several weeks- from the mock-up Food Stamps picturing a watermelon-eating Obama to videos of people making statements like "I'm afraid the blacks will take over." In an environment like that, do I think Powell's endorsement will believed by many people to be reflective only of his racial interests rather than by any reasoned understanding of his policy goals? Of course I do.

In order to see what Powell's endorsement "means," we are going to have to watch and see what it "means" about Republicans, because it, frankly, means little for Democrats. I am curious to see how accurate my predictions are, and intend to post with a follow-up in the next few days. I'm feeling pretty confident, having predicted to my friends and family both the references to "Joe the Plumber" and the use of the phrase "class warfare" in the last debate. But don't confuse "confident," with "happy." That will only come if, in two weeks, CNN's electoral map proves to be prescient.

© 2008, Christopher Stansfield. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed to the public under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License, and may only be distributed according to the terms of said license. To view a copy of this license, please click here.

Why is Joe the Plumber Doing So Much Better Than Other Plumbers?

The star of the last night's third (and, mercifully, last) presidential debate was neither Barack Obama nor John McCain (nor even Bob Schieffer, who somehow managed to look fair and dignified even while allowing Sen. McCain to interrupt Sen. Obama 15 times, and even while letting Sen. McCain get the last word on 7 out of nine topics). No, the star of the show was "Joe the Plumber," an ostensibly "undecided" voter who questioned Obama about his tax policy while the latter was campaigning in Ohio last Sunday. "Joe," (real name: Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher) was concerned about how Obama's tax plan, which proposes tax increases on people and small business netting over $250,000 a year, would affect his chance to buy the plumbing company he's been working for for several years. You can see Obama's response on YouTube here. McCain brought up "Joe's" sorry plight, and forced Obama to confront "Joe" directly. All in all, Joe the Plumber was mentioned a total of 26 times, according to the CBS News transcript. There's just one little odd thing about Joe....

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics "Occupational Outlook Handbook":

"Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters are among the highest paid construction occupations....in May 2004, median hourly earnings of plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters were $19.85. The middle 50 percent earned between $15.01 and $26.67. The lowest 10 percent earned less than $11.62, and the highest 10 percent earned more than $33.72. "

If, as Joe claims, he is working 10-12 hour days, and he is earning the "top" $33.72 an hour (hell, I'll round it to $34), EVEN PRESUMING HE WORKS WEEKENDS AND HOLIDAYS AND NEVER GETS SICK OR TAKES A VACATION, that comes out to....LESS THAN $150,000 A YEAR.

You're going to point out that those number are from 2004- so I ask whether it seems likely that in four years the average earnings of plumbers has gone up 66%- which is what would need to happen to bring Joe the Plumber up over Obama's threshold. Well, does it?

So, this means one of the following:
1. Joe REALLY overcharges.
2. Joe lays more pipe weekly than JFK and Clinton did in their entire adult lives.
3. Joe is a good plumber, but really, really, bad at math.
or,
4. "Joe the Plumber" is a McCain plant deliberately inserted into the campaign in order to stir up untruths about Obama's tax proposals.

I think you all know where I'm personally leaning on this one.

UPDATE: he following facts are now known about "Joe the Plumber":

FACT- Joe does NOT, in fact, make $250,000 a year, or anywhere near it. He admitted that in an interview with Katie Couric.

FACT- Joe was NOT "undecided." In that same interview, he claims "not to have been swayed by the debate" AND that he pretty much knew who he was voting for. That adds up to his having been 'decided" AT LEAST before the debate.

FACT- Joe is a registered Republican.

FACT- "Joe the Plumber" (Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher) is believed to be closely related to ROBERT Wurzelbacher, a prominent Republican donor, and- get this- the son-in-law of CHARLES KEATING, JR and Vice President of the parent company of the S&L that started the whole scandal.

FACT: Joe the Plumber (who moves around a heck of a lot) shouldn't really worry about tax increases, because he apparently doesn't bother to pay his taxes anyway.

FACT: Joe the Plumber ISN"T EVEN REALLY A PLUMBER. At least, not a legal one.

© 2008, Christopher Stansfield. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed to the public under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License, and may only be distributed according to the terms of said license. To view a copy of this license, please click here.

McCain Wins Debate Before It Occurs- Rest Of Us Thrilled We Don't Have to Watch It

From today's online Washington Post:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2008/09/mccain_wins_debate.html

Now, I understand that these ads generally HAVE to be designed and distributed before the debate in order to launch them as soon after the debate as possible, and that no matter what happens, both sides are going to declare themselves the winner. (When was the last time anyone left a political debate saying, "Well, you know, I kind of sucked. Gotta bring the A Game next time...") I have no doubt that the Obama camp has already created an ad that praises his own performance.

However, this particular instance seems to prove two things:
1. The McCain campaign is incompetent- how could they not make sure that this wasn't released early?
2. John McCain never had any intention of skipping the debate, as many of us had already figured out.

Of the two points, (1) is the minor one- after all, the only people who haven't noticed how off-the-rails the McCain campaign has gone are the "true believers" who will wrap their minds around six or seven contradictory concepts just so that they don't have to face the reality of what they're voting for. And believe me, that isn't a swipe at Republicans- plenty of them have been quoted in recent times making statements that all pretty much add up to "OMG, WTF" in teenager-speak.

No, what is truly appalling is point (2), proof that the McCain campaign will do anything- ANYTHING- to get ahead, including cynically manipulating the worst financial crisis in America in decades to engage in cheap political theater. McCain's choice to "suspend" his campaign for several days (something which did not ever actually happen according to volunteers across the country on the local level and MARK SALTER HIMSELF, (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/25/mccain-campaign-still-act_n_129327.html and http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/unsuspended-mccain-aide-c_n_129680.html)) was a good distraction from the disastrous interviews he and Palin have been giving- when, of course, they ever let the media talk to them.

Far more importantly, it is clear that his little roadshow production of "Mr. McCain Goes To Washington" had the effect of doing actual harm to the bipartisan effort to get a bailout bill passed- an effort that was within hours of succeeding until McCain rode in on his pony to speak to John Boehner. (Side note- at this point, many people, even on the left, may be thrilled- after all, nobody with any sense of morality or intelligence really wants to start doling this kind of corporate welfare out, especially in the form of the bill that was originally presented. But it's going to happen one way or another, and Democrats were on track to making it happen the right way- with oversight, possible equity, and concessions for the non-rich people who have been affected. Now, who knows?)

I don't think its much of a leap to suggest that McCain's help in stalling things was as calculated as everything else about this campaign. After all, with a bill passed and some idea of what is going to be done about the economy, the biggest story of the next two news cycles would, of course, be the debate and the aftermath (the swell time when both campaigns declare "victory" (usually after the debate has actually happened) and everyone else starts pointing out the lies and half-truths that were spat out). Now we enter the debate with an America that is as confused and in flux as before- and the media can keep up the business of discussing this economic disaster and what anyone is doing about it rather than focusing on the utter bankruptcy of McCain's "ideas."

The one bright spot to all of this is that, knowing McCain has already "won," I may just go out and do something more entertaining than screaming at my television for an hour tonight. After all, the McCain camp has yet to let reality actually enter in to their plans up until this point- it would be naive to think it will now.

© 2008, Christopher Stansfield. Some rights reserved. This work is licensed to the public under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 3.0 License, and may only be distributed according to the terms of said license. To view a copy of this license, please click here.